AEMO Sees 229 TWh Renewables By 2035, Rooftop Solar Surges

• Australia’s market operator forecasts 229 TWh of renewables by 2035 and rising rooftop penetration, with storage key to reliability as coal exits the grid.

Australia’s National Electricity Market is on a fast track to a cleaner mix, with AEMO projecting renewable generation to reach about 229 TWh by 2034–35, displacing coal as new wind, utility-scale solar and storage connect. The forecast sits inside AEMO’s 2025 Electricity Statement of Opportunities and underscores the scale of new assets needed to keep reliability intact through the transition. 

Distributed solar remains the quiet powerhouse. Roughly 39% of NEM houses and semi-detached dwellings already host PV, and under AEMO’s “Step Change” scenario, household penetration climbs to 56% by 2050. That rooftop fleet is expected to trim operational consumption by 49 TWh by 2034–35—before you count behind-the-meter batteries that shift excess noon output into evening peaks. 

Storage is the swing player. In South Australia, AEMO estimates meeting reliability standards in 2030–31 would need around 820 MW of two-hour batteries—yet less than half that capacity if duration extends to four hours, with further gains at six to eight hours. Hybrid portfolios pair even better: solar plus four-hour storage cuts required battery capacity compared with standalone batteries, and combined wind-solar-storage performs best.

For developers, the message is clear: prioritize sites with room for batteries, plan for longer duration where economics allow, and design plant controls for fast frequency response and congestion-aware dispatch. For policymakers, interconnection build-outs and flexible-load incentives will determine how smoothly the NEM absorbs the rooftop wave and utility-scale pipeline.