2020 module market projection

Feb 18, 2020 12:25 PM ET
  • According to PV InfoLink's data source, JinkoSolar covered the 2019 positions for worldwide module deliveries with about 14 GW-- much greater than any one of its opponents. Especially, this is not the very first time Jinko has actually safeguarded the No. 1 area; it has actually stayed clear of sliding from the top as a lot of its precursors performed in the sector's earlier years. The firm is adhered to by JA Solar and also Trina Solar (each delivery greater than 10 GW), and after that Longi, Canadian Solar, Hanwha Q Cells, Risen Energy, Suntech, Astronergy, and also Talesun.
2020 module market projection
Image: Dave Tacon/ pv magazine

Rated by export quantities, the leading 5 biggest PV module makers in 2019 were JinkoSolar, JA Solar, Canadian Solar, Trina Solar, as well as Risen Energy. With each other they exported 33-- 34 GW of components from China throughout the year.

Loan consolidation creeps

According to the PV InfoLink data source, the share of deliveries from the top 10 producers expanded somewhat from 2018. They supplied almost 80 GW of components in 2014, consequently satisfying 65.4% of overall international need, which got to 121 GW.

PV InfoLink is dealing with need cautiously in China this year, as well as the marketplace is anticipated to experience a supply excess throughout the post-Chinese New Year duration via to the 2nd quarter of the year. However, worldwide need is anticipated to expand by 13.4 GW from 2019.

Tier-1 suppliers are getting an one-upmanship in regards to circulation networks, brand name impact, and also item competition, as well as for that reason the module market will certainly be progressively controlled by a couple of huge makers. Versus this background, the module manufacturing titans are a lot more enthusiastic this year in regards to delivery quantities. It's anticipated that the leading 10 will certainly control greater than 70% of international module need

High-efficiency need.

In spite of a tiny distinction in complete need in between the 2nd and also very first quarters, supply will expand constantly as module, cell, as well as wafer capability rise every 3 months and also ultimately enter into considerable excess in the 2nd quarter. To maintain rates secure, module suppliers have actually been raising the power outcome of their components; estimate on components covering 400 W have actually ended up being typical amongst producers. To attain 400 W, makers require to take on bigger cells and also use half-cut as well as multi-busbar modern technologies, as well as therefore a bigger variety of standard module lines will certainly be shuttered in 2020.

The prevalent fostering of huge half-cut cells has actually caused an enter the electrical power of components created in between 2019 as well as 2020, as well as producers are still stepping up their video game. While Longi is advertising components that utilize M6 (166 mm) wafers and also Zhonghuan Semiconductor is pitching those that make use of M12 (210 mm) wafers, a few other manufacturers have this year started to look for various other wafer dimensions that can make their components much more affordable than ever before. As a result, components that make use of wafers gauging around 170 mm might strike the marketplace in between 2020 as well as 2021.

As cells and components remain to expand in dimension, components reveal additional capacity to advance on the technological front. While components constructed with half-cut cells as well as multi-busbar affiliation are making their method right into the mainstream market, Tier-1 manufacturers are looking for to boost module effectiveness via proceeded financial investment in the r & d of high-density components. These manufacturers have actually additionally offered severe focus to superposition welding this year, for led or shingled components. Amongst them, Huansheng Solar, Seraphim, Tongwei, and also Canadian Solar have mass-produced shingled module with conductive paste for some years. Jinko, which has actually gotten thousands of MW of orders for its "Tiger" module, leads in the advancement of superposition-welded components.

Various other Tier-1 producers have actually additionally made strides hereof, as well as they vary in their technique to the format as well as technological style of such components. Hence, there need to be yet one more large range of unique components on ceremony at PV Expo Japan, a trade convention kept in the very early part of yearly where producers provide the fruits of their technical labors. Half-cut and also MBB tools can be updated to do superposition welding, and also as long as such a modification guarantees appropriate technological maturation as well as item returns, countless producers would certainly quickly move to superposition welding, additional raising the electrical power of mainstream components.

Looking in advance, module need will certainly go stale in the initial fifty percent of the year-- with costs anticipated to pattern downward, however grow in the 2nd fifty percent. Polysilicon as well as PV glass might delight in a strong supply/demand equilibrium, as well as the module costs of products price is not most likely to see any kind of significant decrease. As a result, temporary rate declines in the solar supply chain will certainly come generally from ability development as well as excess in the wafer and also cell sections, however likewise from per-watt price decreases that comply with renovations in module power level.

As suppliers are raising module power level to win orders, deliveries of components constructed with half-cut and also MBB cells have actually significantly raised. By comparison, manufacturers with reduced deliveries of high-efficiency or unique components will certainly battle to grab orders in 2020.

While profession obstacles and also China's May 31 Policy activated a decline in the PV market as well as motivated costs in the supply chain to topple, really couple of suppliers were removed therefore.

Yet, points will certainly make a U-turn this year. Assembly line for standard multi-Si cells, specifically, are not mosting likely to take on bigger wafers. The whole multicrystalline supply chain might have a hard time to attain more price decreases, making it most likely for the marketplace share of traditional multi-Si cells to reduce and also assembly line for such cells to shut down in droves.

On the other hand, older cell assembly line, which sustain a lot greater manufacturing prices per watt than ones developed in between the 2nd fifty percent of in 2014 as well as this year, have no charge benefit-- and also would certainly not achieve any type of, even if they were changed to embrace bigger wafers. They will certainly get on improperly in the cost battle throughout this year's slack period. As a result, older assembly line, whether in the cell or module sector, will certainly discontinue procedure in majorities than ever before.

Corrine Lin

Global module shipment ranking 2019
1 JinkoSolar
2 JA Solar
3 Trina Solar
4 Longi Solar Technology
5 Canadian Solar
6 Hanwha Q Cells
7 Risen Energy
8 Suntech
9 Astronergy
10 Talesun
Source: PV InfoLink

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