US Solar Outlook Slashed As Policy Rollbacks Rattle Pipeline Forecast

• A new SEIA–WoodMac report cuts the 2026–2030 US solar outlook by 27% after recent federal policy shifts, even as manufacturing and H1 additions remain strong.

The outlook for US solar just dimmed. A new market update from the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie projects that utility-scale and distributed solar installations between 2026 and 2030 will fall 27% versus prior guidance, reflecting the bite of recently tightened tax credit rules and tariff changes. The revision follows a year when developers scrambled to lock in schedules ahead of shifting eligibility, financing, and interconnection requirements.

Yet the report also highlights solar’s underlying momentum. In the first half of 2025, solar and storage still accounted for 82% of all new US generation capacity additions, while domestic module production expanded by 13 GW to reach roughly 55 GW of annualized output. Those twin trends—fast build and rising onshore supply—suggest a sector that remains structurally competitive but now faces a steeper policy gradient.

The forward picture is mixed. Tighter credit timelines (notably the new “begin construction” and “in service” deadlines for full investment tax credit value) will force developers to sequence equipment orders and civil works more rigorously, with an emphasis on procuring long-lead transformers and protection gear early. Projects able to co-locate batteries—capturing evening revenues and ancillary services—should fare better in interconnection queues and financing committees.

For state regulators and utilities, the takeaway is urgency. Transmission upgrades, flexible interconnections, and clear capacity products that reward dispatchable clean power can soften the blow of federal changes. For sponsors, standardized designs and tax-credit transfer deals remain crucial to keep the fourth-quarter rush from turning into gridlock. The next few auction rounds and PPA signings will show whether developers can thread that needle and keep 2027–2028 additions on track.