US Community Solar Market to Reach 7.3 GW by 2029

• Wood Mackenzie predicts 7.3 GW DC of community solar by 2029, with potential for growth in new state markets despite a projected contraction after 2026.

Wood Mackenzie and the Coalition for Community Solar Access predict that the US will add 7.3 GW DC of community solar by 2029, bringing total installations to 14 GW DC. The market is expected to grow at an average rate of 5% per year through 2026 before contracting by 11% through 2029. However, the establishment of new state markets could drive additional growth beyond 2026.

Caitlin Connolly, a senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, noted that growth is slowing in existing state markets and that the decision on California community solar in May 2024 resulted in a significant reduction to the national outlook. Developers are also navigating federal incentives and hoping to use funds from the Solar for All program to expand into new state markets.

What factors could drive growth in the US community solar market beyond 2026?

• Continued decline in solar panel costs, making community solar more affordable for consumers
  
• Increasing awareness and demand for renewable energy options among residential and commercial customers
  
• Implementation of supportive policies and regulations at the state and federal levels to encourage community solar development
  
• Expansion of community solar programs to underserved communities and low-income households
• Collaboration between utilities, developers, and community organizations to streamline project development and increase access to community solar
  
• Technological advancements in energy storage and grid integration, making community solar projects more reliable and efficient
• Growing interest from corporate entities in investing in community solar projects as part of their sustainability initiatives.