Solar Slump Jeopardizes Australia’s 2030 Green Goals

• Australia’s utility-scale clean energy investment slump—weakest since 2017—jeopardizes 82% by 2030, as grid bottlenecks, permitting delays and unstable revenues stall projects despite booming rooftop solar.

Australia’s utility-scale clean-energy investment has fallen to its weakest since 2017, jeopardizing the 82% renewable-electricity target for 2030. About 2.5 gigawatts of large projects are expected to reach final investment decision this year, down from 4 gigawatts in 2024, as permitting delays, grid congestion, costs and unstable revenues deter developers.

A federal underwriting scheme has yet to unlock the pipeline, with many projects stuck in planning queues. Rooftop solar keeps growing but cannot match utility-scale output. Industry warns Australia is slipping behind countries accelerating builds with stronger incentives and faster grid expansion. Analysts urge transmission upgrades and steadier policy signals.

Will CIS auctions, REZ buildout, and firming contracts restore 2030 renewable trajectory?

• Short answer: They can bend the curve upward from 2026, but won’t fully restore the 82% by 2030 trajectory without faster transmission, faster connections, and bigger annual auction volumes; current timelines imply a late-decade commissioning bulge that risks a 2031–33 catch‑up.

CIS auctions

• Scale: Expanded target is roughly low‑30s GW total (about three‑quarters variable renewables, one‑quarter dispatchable/firming). If fully awarded and built, it could cover a majority of the remaining VRE and firming gap.
• Pace: To land 82% by 2030, the NEM needs ~6–8 GW of utility‑scale VRE per year plus continuous rooftop growth; current CIS auction cadence delivers closer to ~4–6 GW/year unless rounds are upsized and synchronized with state schemes.
• Bankability: Revenue floors reduce merchant risk and should unlock FIDs from 2025, but grid access uncertainty still stalls many winners from reaching NTP quickly.
• Delivery risk: Award-to-energisation lag (24–42 months) pushes most CIS-backed megawatts into 2027–30, compressing delivery risk into the grid’s tightest years.

REZ buildout

• Access schemes help decongest connections and co‑optimise curtailment, but most REZ transmission backbones (e.g., HumeLink, VNI West stages, Central‑West Orana) have energisation dates skewed to 2027–29.
• Where REZ early-works and stageable lines proceed (Queensland and parts of Victoria), projects can connect sooner; elsewhere, connection queues and system strength remediation still gate delivery.
• Social licence, easements and materials inflation remain the biggest REZ schedule risks; slippage of one to two years would materially dent 2030 output even if auctions succeed.

Firming contracts

• Batteries: Multi‑gigawatt award rounds in NSW, Vic, Qld and the federal CIS are accelerating 2–4 hour batteries; these can be built within 18–30 months once contracted, supporting a 2027–29 ramp.
• Long-duration: Pumped hydro timelines (late‑decade) and supply-chain constraints limit >6‑hour coverage this decade; bridging support will rely on batteries plus demand response and some gas peaking.
• Adequacy: Hitting reliability settings likely requires roughly 8–10 GW/30–40 GWh new firming by 2030; awarded and near‑FID capacity covers a large share but not all, particularly in SA/Vic/VNI import hours

What must change to make it decisive

• Front‑load CIS volumes in 2025–26 and align with state tenders to hit 7–8 GW VRE awards per year.
• Lock in cost‑recovery frameworks for priority transmission and accelerate contested works with early contractor involvement.
• Streamline connection studies (single‑touch modeling, firm access trials in REZs) and standardize grid‑forming specs.
• Expand demand-side and capacity-style firming procurements to backfill long-duration gaps and derisk 2028–30 summers.
  

Bottom line: CIS auctions, REZ buildout, and firming contracts can materially improve the outlook and avert further slippage, but on current schedules they are more likely to stabilize the trajectory than fully restore an 82% outcome by 2030 unless volumes are increased and transmission/connection bottlenecks are cleared in the next 12–18 months.