Polysilicon supply characteristics to remain unstable - Bernreuter Research

• According to Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research the supply of polysilicon for the PV sector will certainly continue to be constrained in 2021, while considerable overcapacity is impending in 2022 as well as perhaps increase in 2023.

Bernreuter Research's most recent market record, "Polysilicon Market Outlook 2024" paints a picture that proceeded polysilicon ability developments by a couple of significant China-based suppliers that have concentrated on sophisticated production procedures at scale, could result in polysilicon area rates falling back to 2019 levels of below US$ 8 or even US$ 7 per kilogram in 2022.

Bernreuter said, "In order for the market to stay well balanced, global PV installations would have to grow by 30% every year both in 2022 and 2023 to get to 270 GW in 2023. That is possible, but would certainly need the PV market to quicken immensely."

The PV sector has actually become increasingly favorable in 2020, regardless of COVID-19, a doubling of polysilicon costs as a second recent wave of previous polysilicon manufacturers have actually cut manufacturing or exited the industry. Bernreuter noted that around 275,000 MT of polysilicon manufacturing had disappeared in the latest debt consolidation round, compared to 135,000 MT throughout the first round between late 2010 and very early 2013.

Need in 2020 can rise to around 127GW in 2020, according to Bernreuter Research and other market research companies, which has currently created other product lacks such as solar glass, a material expected to remined constrained up until the later part of 2021.

Some market research firms have actually forecasted worldwide PV sets up can surpass over 200GW per annum in the next couple of years, sustained by China's low carbon directives anticipated in March 2021, coupled to Green New Deals as part of larger economic recovery plans in the United States as well as EU.

Leading 'Solar Module Super League (SMSL) participant, JinkoSolar recently suggested that PV sets up in China in 2021 could be in the range of 60GW to 70GW. With yearly worldwide installs threatening to surpass 200GW per year in a few years, additionally polysilicon growths would be needed to stop an additional round of rate increases, as a result of capacity restraints.