OPIS: China cell price rally stalls as margin squeeze intensifies

• OPIS says China’s TOPCon cell rally is losing steam as upstream costs jump ~30% while modules barely budge, intensifying margin pressure across the chain.

China’s TOPCon M10 cell prices held at $0.0378/W FOB, up more than 22% since early July, but momentum is fading as margins get crushed between rising upstream costs and soft downstream demand, according to the OPIS Solar Weekly update. Polysilicon and n-type M10 wafer prices have jumped ~32% and ~29% since July 1, pressuring cells, while n-type module prices have risen only ~3.7% in the same period.

Traders report that uncertainty over a possible adjustment to China’s 9% export tax rebate has driven H2 procurement and reshaped contracting, with cost-sharing clauses now common for forward deliveries. Even so, weak European summer buying and a domestic lull until September are expected to cap further cell price gains. Forward indications for Q4 2025 slipped ~1% week-over-week to $0.085/W for modules.

Why it matters: The upstream/downstream disconnect is back. If module prices don’t transmit higher input costs, cell makers’ margins get squeezed first. Watch for renewed consolidation among subscale producers and for developers to front-load deliveries ahead of any rebate change—both can whipsaw spot pricing.