Global Solar Installation Forecast: 592 GW in 2024

• Solar power surges in 2024 with a 33% rise in installations, driven by plummeting prices, despite challenges for manufacturers and mixed global growth.

According to BloombergNEF (BNEF), the global solar market is projected to install 592 GW of photovoltaic (PV) modules in 2024, reflecting a 33% increase from last year. This surge is attributed to record low module prices, despite challenges for manufacturers, as installations are primarily led by growth in India and Pakistan, while Japan and South Africa lag behind earlier forecasts.

Polysilicon prices have declined to USD 4.70 per kg, below production costs, prompting BNEF to lower its 2024 polysilicon production estimate to 1.96 million tonnes, sufficient for 900 GW of modules. Global solar module manufacturing capacity is set at 1.2 TW, but with module prices hitting 0.096 per Watt, many manufacturers are expected to experience losses this year.

What factors are driving the projected 33% increase in global solar module installations for 2024?

Here are some key factors driving the projected 33% increase in global solar module installations for 2024:

- Falling Module Prices: As mentioned, record low prices for solar modules, driven by competitive manufacturing practices and advancements in technology, make solar energy more accessible to consumers and businesses, accelerating adoption rates.

- Government Policies and Incentives: Many countries continue to implement favorable policies, subsidies, and tax incentives for solar energy projects, encouraging both residential and commercial installations. These supportive frameworks boost confidence and investment in solar technologies.

- Growing Electricity Demand: The increasing demand for electricity, driven by urbanization and industrialization, particularly in developing nations like India and Pakistan, supports the expansion of solar power as a viable alternative to conventional energy sources.

- Technological Advancements: Innovations in solar technology, such as improvements in photovoltaic efficiency and the development of bifacial modules, enhance the performance and appeal of solar installations, further driving their adoption.

- Corporate Sustainability Goals: An increasing number of corporations are committing to sustainability and carbon neutrality, leading to greater investment in renewable energy sources, like solar, to meet these corporate social responsibility objectives.

- Global Supply Chain Improvements: Recovery from disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and other supply chain challenges has led to improved logistics and manufacturing processes for solar components, allowing for increased production and installation rates.

- Energy Security Concerns: Heightened awareness of energy security, particularly in regions previously reliant on fossil fuels, has accelerated the shift to renewable energy sources, positioning solar as a critical component of energy diversification strategies.

- Financing Options and Green Financing Initiatives: The emergence of various financing models, including power purchase agreements (PPAs) and green bonds, provides more accessible funding options for solar projects, encouraging broader market participation.

- Market Expansion in Emerging Economies: Rapid growth in solar installations in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, underscores the potential for substantial future demand. These markets are becoming increasingly significant contributors to global solar capacity.

- Climate Change Initiatives: Global efforts to combat climate change and a collective push for net-zero emission targets are prompting states and businesses to expedite the transition to renewable energy sources, propelling solar as a leading option.

- Increased Public Awareness and Adoption: Heightened public awareness about environmental issues and the benefits of renewable energy promotes a cultural shift toward solar installations among consumers, raising demand across residential sectors.

Together, these factors create a robust landscape for solar energy growth, setting the stage for significant increases in global module installations in the years ahead.