China’s fossil generation dips as solar output surges in November

• New data suggest China’s fossil-fuel generation will fall for the first time in a decade as large-scale solar and wind lift supply.

China is on track for its first annual drop in fossil-fuel power generation in ten years, according to fresh analysis—thanks in part to a November surge in wind and a notable jump in output from large solar bases. The inflection underscores how quickly utility-scale renewables are reshaping the Chinese power stack, even as coal plants still provide capacity for peaks and grid stability. Bloomberg

The dynamics are straightforward. Record PV build in 2024–2025 is now translating into real generation, with desert mega-bases pushing daytime supply to new highs. That’s eating into coal burn during daylight hours and lowering marginal prices—trends that deepen as curtailment is tackled with ultra-high-voltage lines and a burst of new storage. Batteries are already playing a bigger role at the plant level, soaking up midday excess and returning power to early evening ramps.

Policy remains the swing factor. Market reforms that reward flexibility—ancillary services, capacity, and time-of-use price spreads—will determine how quickly coal transitions from energy producer to capacity provider. But at a system level, the takeaway is clear: solar is no longer a bolt-on; it’s structurally changing dispatch.

For global developers and manufacturers, China’s shift matters twice—first as a buyer of components and systems, and second as an exporter of falling-cost kit that keeps pressure on prices elsewhere.