BNEF: global solar additions could dip in 2026 before rebounding

• BloombergNEF expects a brief slowdown in 2026 as markets digest overcapacity and grid constraints, with growth resuming from 2027.

After several record-setting years, BloombergNEF now sees a modest pullback in global solar additions in 2026, driven by policy and grid bottlenecks absorbing a wave of low-cost hardware. The research group still expects growth to resume in 2027 as transmission catches up, storage scales, and procurement frameworks reward deliverability over headline wattage. For manufacturers, the softer year could accelerate consolidation and shift product mixes toward higher-efficiency, higher-reliability platforms. 

Developers shouldn’t mistake a dip for a downturn. The fundamentals—corporate demand, electrification, data-center loads—remain strong. The winners will be projects with bankable interconnection timelines and battery-ready designs that sell shaped, evening-weighted output. Markets with quick permitting and flexible ancillary services will capture the next growth wave as financiers prioritize execution certainty over simple capex savings. 

In short: 2026 may be a breather, not a break—one that leaves the industry leaner, more grid-aware, and poised to scale again.