BloombergNEF Sees $332 Billion Copper Gap as Metal Shortages Ease

• BloombergNEF forecasts copper supply 20 million tons short of demand by 2050, a 44% gap that needs $332 billion of new-mine investment.
• Nine of the 10 transition metals it tracks have enough supply to 2050, as lithium demand triples to 4.8 million tons LCE.
• The copper deficit opens in 2028, while lithium's short-term shortfall should ease as new capacity starts in 2027.

BloombergNEF expects nine of the 10 energy-transition metals it tracks to have enough supply capacity through 2050. Copper is the exception, with a forecast 20-million-ton shortfall, according to its Transition Metals Outlook 2026, released Oct. 20.

The figures are forecasts, not market data. BNEF's release does not name the scenario behind them. Its supply view assumes producers keep developing mines and replacing depleted reserves. On that basis, the copper deficit opens in 2028 and reaches 44% of projected demand by 2050. Closing it would take $332 billion of investment in new mines.

BNEF sees copper demand rising 61% from 2026 to almost 46 million tons in 2050. Its December 2025 edition put the 2050 gap at 19 million tons.

Battery metals look easier. Lithium and graphite demand rise with electric vehicles and energy storage, yet BNEF sees enough supply for both. Wider use of lithium iron phosphate cells has cut its projected demand for cobalt and nickel.

The outlook in numbers

• 9 of 10 materials have sufficient supply capacity to 2050. Last year, BNEF projected deficits for three.
• 20 million tons of copper shortfall by 2050, equal to 44% of projected demand, with the deficit starting in 2028.
• 1.6 million to 4.8 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent demand from 2026 to 2050, or about 4.7% growth a year (list.solar calculation).
• 3.3 million to 6.9 million tons of graphite demand over the same period.
• 11.4 million tons of copper for electrified transport in 2050, up 244% and about a quarter of total demand (list.solar calculation).
• 8 of 10 materials have more than half their refining capacity in one country. For seven of them, it is China.

For solar and grid buyers, copper is the cost to watch. It accounts for around 10% to 15% of transformer and power cable prices, according to the International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026. The IEA projects copper supply 25% short of demand in 2035, based on the project pipeline.

BNEF metals and mining head Martin Tengler said the challenge now is "whether the right materials will be available when and where they are needed."

Time is the constraint. A new mine takes 17 years on average to reach production, so one started in 2026 would deliver around 2043 (list.solar calculation). Lithium's temporary deficit should ease sooner, as new capacity comes online in 2027.