Brattle Finds Distributed Energy Could Avoid $614B in US Power Costs

• A Brattle report for Pew finds expanded distributed energy could avoid $614 billion in US power-system costs through 2050.
• The modeled scenario adds about 400 GW of DER, lifting its share of US installed capacity from 8% to 18%.
• Three reforms to planning, permitting and interconnection account for $266 billion; the authors say the results are not forecasts.

Rooftop solar, home batteries and flexible demand could avoid $614 billion in US power-system costs through 2050, according to a report by The Brattle Group for The Pew Charitable Trusts.

The study, released on Nov. 5, compares an expanded scenario for these distributed energy resources (DERs) with a status quo baseline. In the expanded case, adoption nationwide rises to levels already seen or projected in leading US markets. The savings are cumulative, undiscounted and in inflation-adjusted 2026 dollars. The authors say the estimates "are not forecasts of what is likely to happen," because they assume major barriers to deployment are removed.

Roughly half of the value comes from avoided generation investment and operating costs. About a third comes from deferring distribution upgrades driven by load growth. The expanded case also avoids roughly 70 GW of projected net gas additions. Distributed batteries enrolled in virtual power plant programs grow from 1 GW to 35 GW.

The study in numbers

• $614 billion avoided through 2050: $334 billion in generation, $182 billion in deferred distribution upgrades and $97 billion from cheaper distributed solar.
• About $24.6 billion a year on average over the 25-year horizon, against $43 billion a year reached in 2050 (list.solar calculation).
• 113 GW to 524 GW of nameplate DER capacity, lifting its share of US installed capacity from 8% to 18%.
• 229 GW of distributed solar in 2050, up from 68 GW, with rooftop panels on one in six single-family homes.
• $266 billion, or 43% of the total, from three reforms: distribution planning ($177 billion), permitting ($50 billion) and interconnection ($39 billion).
• $122 a year off the average household bill by 2050, against a $232 real increase in the baseline, or about 53% of it (list.solar calculation).
• 18.19 cents per kWh was the average US residential price in January–August 2026, up from 17.03 cents a year earlier, EIA data show.

The three reforms come from a policy playbook Pew published in April. The permitting case assumes US solar permitting costs fall by about 90%, to levels seen in Germany and Australia.

"The opportunity is to treat them as resources in utility planning rather than leave their capabilities untapped," Brattle principal and coauthor Ryan Hledik said in a statement.

As next steps, the authors propose state-level DER estimates and utility-specific studies of distribution value.