Wood Mackenzie Sees Sodium-Ion Cells Matching LFP Costs by End-2026

• Wood Mackenzie expects sodium-ion cells from market leaders to reach cost parity with LFP by the end of 2026.
• A year ago the consultancy did not see parity until around 2035; module and system parity is now due after 2030.
• Over 70 GWh of supply deals are signed, but LFP stays the bankable choice for 2- to 4-hour storage built today.

Sodium-ion battery cells made by the market leaders are expected to reach cost parity with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) by the end of 2026, Wood Mackenzie said in a statement on Nov. 5. Module and system parity will come only after 2030, it said.

The report, titled "Sodium-ion batteries: commercialisation begins, economics to follow," covers China, the US, Germany and India. It counts more than 70 GWh of supply agreements as the chemistry enters commercial production. BYD has 30 GWh of planned sodium-ion manufacturing capacity in China, and CATL is targeting shipments of at least 1 GWh by end-2026.

The forecast in numbers

• $229/kWh global average upfront capital for sodium-ion, against $200/kWh for LFP.
• 14.5% higher upfront cost for sodium-ion at those averages (list.solar calculation).
• 21% lower total cost of ownership over a 20-year project life, with no augmentation events and lower operating costs.
• 18–20% learning rate for sodium-ion in China over 2026–35.
• Less than 1%: sodium-ion output as a share of lithium-ion production in 2025, according to the IEA.
• About 15% lower energy density for the latest sodium-ion cells, at up to 175 Wh/kg against 205 Wh/kg for LFP in IEA data (list.solar calculation).

China reimposed a consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries in July 2026 but exempts sodium-ion through end-2028. LFP pays 2% from September 2026, rising to 4% a year later. In the US, Wood Mackenzie points to Section 301 tariffs of about 58% on Chinese storage cells and to IRA 45X credits, which favour domestic sodium-ion makers. India backs local capacity with a $1.25 billion incentive scheme.

"SIB wins on supply chain security, cycle life and wide thermal threshold," said Ankita Chauhan, a director of supply chain and power research at Wood Mackenzie. The IEA says the latest cells keep around 90% of capacity at -40 °C.

For battery storage projects deployed now, LFP remains the bankable choice for 2- to 4-hour assets, the consultancy said. "The 2030-2035 window is where the economics decisively shift," said Priya Shrivastava, a senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. CATL's 1-GWh shipment target falls due at the end of this year.