NYSEIA Study Sees Upstate NY Solar Hosting Capacity Rising Up to 97%

• Flexible interconnection could raise Upstate New York's community solar hosting capacity by 71% to 97%, a NYSEIA study found.
• The same solar via substation upgrades would need $7.4 billion to $7.9 billion of capital, according to EPRI's analysis.
• National Grid and Avangrid are seeking to expand pilots as regulators work on a statewide framework.

Flexible interconnection could raise community solar hosting capacity in Upstate New York by 71% to 97%, a study released on Nov. 12 found. The New York Solar Energy Industries Association (NYSEIA) published it. The lower figure caps curtailment at 5% of a project's annual output, the higher one at 10%.

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) ran the technical and economic analysis. NYSEIA led the project with the New York Battery Energy Storage Technology Consortium (NY-BEST), with funding from NYSERDA. The method uses controls to trim solar output or battery charging when the grid is constrained.

EPRI grouped data from 1,115 substations. It modelled 5-MW solar projects in the territories of National Grid, Avangrid's NYSEG and RG&E, Central Hudson and Orange & Rockland. Connecting the same solar with zero curtailment would require $7.4 billion to $7.9 billion of traditional substation upgrades, the report said.

The study in numbers

• 19 GW of theoretical firm solar hosting capacity Upstate, rising to 32.5 GW at 5% curtailment or 37.4 GW at 10%.
• 13.5 GW to 18.4 GW of added technical potential, before siting and economic limits (list.solar calculation).
• 238% of current hosting capacity in National Grid's territory at 10% curtailment, the highest of the four utilities.
• 3.3 GW of extra cost-effective solar at 5% curtailment and without the federal tax credit, by NYSEIA's conservative estimate.
• 15% more than the 2.9 GW of community solar installed statewide through Sept. 30, according to NYSERDA data (list.solar calculation).
• 5,720 MW of firm battery storage hosting capacity in Con Edison's area, versus 15,685 MW to 21,405 MW with flexible interconnection.

That battery gain, 174% to 274%, depends on charging. The lower figure assumes batteries charge only within defined windows. The higher one lets them charge whenever it maximizes revenue. On Long Island, high charging costs and few high-value discharge hours make the approach generally cost-ineffective for retail batteries.

"EPRI's analysis shows that New York can leverage technology to get more value from infrastructure we've already built," Noah Ginsburg, NYSEIA's executive director, said in a statement.

National Grid and Avangrid are seeking approval to expand their flexible interconnection pilots to more substations. The Accelerate Solar for Affordable Power (ASAP) Act directs the New York State Public Service Commission to work with utilities on a statewide framework. The report suggests a set limit on annual solar curtailment, such as 5%, with compensation for any curtailment beyond it.