IEA Sees Almost 4,800 GW of New Renewables by 2031, Solar Over 75%

• The IEA forecasts almost 4,800 GW of new renewable capacity in 2026–2031, 57% more than in the previous six years.
• Solar PV makes up more than three-quarters, while China's share of growth falls to 53% from over 60% in 2025.
• Grid queues grew 60% in a year to 3,000 GW; solar is set to overtake hydropower as top renewable source in 2029.

The International Energy Agency expects global renewable power capacity to grow by almost 4,800 GW in 2026–2031, with solar PV making up more than three-quarters of the increase, according to its Renewables 2026 report published on Nov. 6.

That is 57% more than in the previous six years. Governments are seeking to cut their exposure to imported fuels after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the agency said. For the first time, emerging and developing economies outside China are set to match advanced economies' additions.

Utility-scale solar is forecast to grow by 2,075 GW over the period, and distributed systems by another 1,530 GW. The IEA estimates that rooftop solar has improved power supply for at least 70 million households since 2022.

The forecast in numbers

• 3,605 GW of new solar PV in 2026–2031, or about 601 GW a year (list.solar calculation).
• 42% of that solar growth comes from distributed systems (list.solar calculation).
• 53% of global renewable growth goes to China on average, down from over 60% in 2025.
• 17% of global module manufacturing is set to be in India within five years, almost double its current share.
• 45% upward revision to the US solar forecast, on a larger pipeline of projects qualifying for tax credits before the 2027 phase-out.
• 3,000 GW of advanced-stage renewable and storage projects wait in grid connection queues, up 60% in a year.
• 511 GW of solar was added worldwide in 2025, according to IRENA.

Global additions are forecast to fall 11% in 2026, ending 21 straight record years, as China's solar additions fell almost 55% year on year in January–September after it moved to auctions. The IEA cut its China outlook by almost 116 GW, but higher forecasts for the US, India, Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America leave the 2026–2030 total 2% above last year's report. India becomes the second-largest growth market, a shift the IEA detailed in its India report on Nov. 3.

More than 90% of major Chinese PV manufacturers reported losses in 2026, and over 70 companies have filed for bankruptcy since 2024.

Curtailment of wind and solar in key markets reached almost 200 TWh in 2025 and could top 800 TWh by 2031. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said "it's mainly energy security that is driving renewables' expansion."

The IEA expects solar to overtake hydropower as the largest renewable source of electricity in 2029.