China Widens Solar Gap: WoodMac

Nov 8, 2023 01:38 PM ET
  • China to remain the global leader in solar supply chain for the next 4 years, controlling 80% of global capacity. USD 130B invested, cost, tech & policy advantages. Capacity sufficient to cover global demand until 2032. US & India to add 200 GW, but Chinese imports remain.

China will remain the global leader in the solar supply chain for the next 4 years, controlling 80% of the global polysilicon, wafer, cell and module manufacturing capacity. This is thanks to its significant investment of USD 130 billion in the sector this year, and its cost, technological and policy advantages. Its capacity is sufficient to cover global demand until 2032. In the US and India in particular, there are plans for over 200 GW of module capacity since 2022, driven by local supportive policies. However, these plans are unlikely to reduce their dependence on Chinese imports due to the high competition and risks of oversupply, leading to suspensions or terminations of production lines in China.

What Is China's Solar Supply Chain Leadership Until 2032?

  • China currently holds 80% of the global polysilicon, wafer, cell and module manufacturing capacity, leading the solar supply chain.
  • China has invested USD 130 billion in the sector this year, further solidifying its lead until 2032.
  • In the US and India there are plans for over 200GW of module capacity since 2022, but due to high competition and risks of oversupply, these plans are unlikely to reduce their dependence on Chinese imports.
  • The Chinese solar supply chain has cost, technological and policy advantages, making it difficult for other countries to compete.
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